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Black Friday Reality Check: Spotting Real vs. Fake Discounts
A big red percentage tells you only how today's price compares with another number the seller chose. Whether that's a real discount depends on what the item actually sold for before. Here's how to check in a couple of minutes.
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The two-minute deal check
- Decide before the sale. Write down what you're buying and the most you'll pay.
- Look up the price history. Use Keepa or CamelCamelCamel for Amazon, and Google's price insights for prices across sellers.
- Read the crossed-out price. Find out what the retailer means by "list," "was," "typical" or "compare at."
- Match the full model number, including any suffix, against the manufacturer's site.
- Compare the total, including shipping, tax, required accessories, warranty and return terms.
- Set an alert and walk away if the price isn't at your target.
What a "was" price is supposed to mean
The FTC's Guides Against Deceptive Pricing (16 CFR 233.1) describe a legitimate former price as "the actual, bona fide price at which the article was offered to the public on a regular basis for a reasonably substantial period of time." They call a price fictitious when "an artificial, inflated price was established for the purpose of enabling the subsequent offer of a large reduction."
List prices have their own section. Under 16 CFR 233.3, an advertised reduction from a manufacturer's list price can mislead shoppers when that list price is well above the prices at which substantial sales actually happen in the area.
These are guides, and many states have their own rules on top. None of that guarantees every price tag follows them, so check the history yourself.
Step 1: Look up the price history
Price history shows whether today's number is actually low. These tools are the quickest ways to see it.
- KeepaAmazon price history charts, price-drop alerts and browser extensions. See keepa.com.
- CamelCamelCamel and The CamelizerAmazon price history charts and email alerts when the price drops to your target. The add-on listing calls it a free service and lists support for Amazon in the US, Canada, Australia and much of Europe.
- Google price insightsShows whether a product's price is "low, typical, or high" compared with recent months, using information from sellers across the web, and can flag 30-day lows. Google notes it "doesn't predict how a price may change in the future."
How to read the chart: look at the last few months, not the all-time high. If the "sale" price matches a price the item has hit again and again, the discount is routine. If the price climbed in the weeks before the sale and then "dropped" back to where it had been, the discount is cosmetic. If the price is clearly below its usual range, you've found a real deal. Buy it if it's on your list.
Step 2: Know which crossed-out price you're looking at
Retailers use different reference prices, and the words matter. Amazon, for example, explains its terms this way:
- List Price is the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP), which Amazon says is a "validated price."
- Typical or "Was" Price is "the median price paid on Amazon in the last 90 days," excluding prices paid during limited-time deals.
A discount measured from the list price can look much bigger than one measured from what people actually paid. Other stores use labels like "reg.," "original" or "compare at." Look for the store's pricing definitions, which are often linked near the price or in the help pages, and compare against the price history rather than the label.
Step 3: Match the exact model number
Holiday sales bring derivative models. According to an NBC News report quoting DealNews, Consumer Reports and Wirecutter, these are limited-run versions made for the holiday season. Sometimes an existing product just gets a new model number. Other times the specs are changed to hit a lower price. Either way, there's little history or review coverage to compare against.
- Compare the full model number, including any suffix, with the manufacturer's own product pages.
- Line up the spec sheets: ports, panel or motor, included accessories and warranty length.
- If a model has no price history and no reviews, treat the discount as unverified rather than generous.
Step 4: Compare the total, not the sticker
| Check | What to look at |
|---|---|
| Price you actually pay | After coupons, tax and shipping |
| Required extras | Mounts, cables, batteries, filters, or subscriptions needed to use it |
| Seller | Sold by the retailer itself or by a third-party marketplace seller |
| Warranty | Whether the manufacturer's warranty applies when you buy from this seller |
| Returns | The window, any restocking fees, who pays return shipping, and holiday return terms |
| Price adjustments | Some retailers adjust if the price drops after you buy. Read the policy, and don't count on it. |
For more on these, see product bundles vs. buying separately and how to evaluate manufacturer warranties.
Red flags worth a second look
- A percentage with no explained reference price. "60% off" what, exactly?
- Countdown timers. Check whether the same price is still there after the timer runs out.
- Model numbers you can't find on the manufacturer's site. Ask what changed.
- Bundle "value" made up of accessories you'd never buy separately.
- A third-party price far below everyone else's. Check the seller's identity and return terms, and consider counterfeit risk.
- "Lowest price ever." The price history will confirm it or it won't.
A simple plan for gift season
Make the list now, while prices are calm. Research what fits each person first. The network's holiday gift guides sort gifts by hobby and include fit checks for each one. Then set price alerts at your target and decide your walk-away price before the sale starts. You'll end up with the right gift at a price you've checked, which beats a big percentage on the wrong one. If a price claim looks deceptive, you can report it to the FTC at ReportFraud.ftc.gov.
Also useful: how to tell a product comparison from an affiliate advertisement.
Quick answers
Are Black Friday deals real?
Some are and some aren't. The only reliable test is the item's own price history. If today's price matches a price it has hit repeatedly in recent months, the "deal" isn't special, whatever the percentage badge says.
What does the "Was Price" mean on Amazon?
Amazon describes its Typical or "Was" Price as the median price paid on Amazon in the last 90 days, excluding prices paid during limited-time deals. Its List Price is a manufacturer's suggested price that Amazon says it validates.
Is there a free price tracker?
CamelCamelCamel and its browser add-on, The Camelizer, describe themselves as a free service for Amazon price history and price-drop alerts. Keepa offers Amazon price history charts, alerts and browser extensions. Google's price insights compare a product's current price with its typical range across sellers.
What is a derivative model?
It's a version of a product made in a limited run around Black Friday. Sometimes it's an existing product with a new model number, and sometimes the specs have been cut to hit a lower price. Because the model is new, it has little price history or review coverage to check against.
Is a fake "was" price legal?
The FTC's Guides Against Deceptive Pricing say a former price should be one at which the item was actually and openly offered for a reasonably substantial period. State laws apply too. If you think a price claim is deceptive, you can report it at ReportFraud.ftc.gov.
Editorial notice: BuyingGuide.co does not claim hands-on testing and does not quote prices, because holiday prices change daily. Confirm the exact model, seller, warranty and return terms on the final listing before buying. Links to our network sites or merchants may support this publication; no payment determines what we recommend. See our affiliate disclosure.